디플레이션 or 인플레이션으로 인한 공황

부자들의 음모  - 로버트 기요사키 The Conspiracy of the Rich - Robert Kiyosaki  7.  

 

공황의 두 가지 유형

 

 

1.    디플레이션으로 인한 공황

2.   인플레이션으로 인한 공황

Two Types of Crises

1. Deflation-Induced Crisis
2. Inflation-Induced Crisis

 

 

75년 전 미국에서 일어난 공황은 디플레이션 때문에 발생했다. 반면 독일에서 일어난 공황은 인플레이션 때문에 발생한 것이다. 미국의 공황이 디플레이션 때문에 발생한 이유 중 하나는 미국 달러가 기술적으로는 여전히 진짜 가치를 가지고 있었기 때문이다. 당시 미국 달러는 금과 은으로 가치를 뒷받침하는 ‘태환화폐’였다. 태환화폐는 기본적으로 재무부의 금고에 금이나 은을 보관하고 있다는 것을 증명하는 종이 영수증이다.

Seventy-five years ago, the crisis in the United States was caused by deflation, while the crisis in Germany was due to inflation. One reason the American crisis was driven by deflation was that the US dollar still technically held intrinsic value. At the time, the US dollar was a "convertible currency" backed by gold and silver. Convertible currency is essentially a paper receipt proving that the Treasury has gold or silver in its vaults.

 

 

사람들이 대부분 준비하는 것은 미국식 공황이다. 한 직장에서 오래 머물며 빚을 지지 않고 검소하게 생활하면서 돈을 아끼고 저축하고, 노후자금을 마련하고, 정부의 연금을 받으면서 살아가는 것을 최우선으로 생각한다. 또한 뮤추얼펀드 시장에서 일찍 빠져나와 꽤 돈을 번 사람들은 넘치는 현금을 만끽하면서 자신의 현명함을 뿌듯하게 여길 것이다.

Most people prepare for an American-style crisis. They prioritize staying at one job for a long time, living frugally without incurring debt, saving money, preparing for retirement, and relying on government pensions. Those who cash out early from the mutual fund market and make substantial profits enjoy their cash surplus, feeling proud of their prudence.

 

 

하지만 독일식 공황이 닥치면 어떤 일이 벌어질까? 그때도 여전히 현금이 최고일까? 자신이 여전히 현명하다고 자부할 수 있을까? 이러한 사람들은 미국식 공황이 닥쳤을 때는 살아남을지 몰라도, 독일식 공황이 밀어닥치면 순식간에 무너지고 만다.

But what if a German-style crisis hits? Will cash still be king then? Can you still consider yourself wise? While these individuals might survive an American-style crisis, they will quickly crumble if a German-style crisis strikes.

 

1913년 이전에는 미국에 소득세가 없었다는 사실도 알아야 한다. 소득세는 연방준비제도가 생기면서 이자로 지급할 돈을 확보하기 위해 고안된 세금이다. 연방준비위원회는 인플레이션이라고 하는 보이지 않는 세금과 눈에 보이는 소득세를 만든 장본인이다. 그들의 본질적인 임무는 우리 주머니에 있는 돈을 꺼내 부자들 주머니 속에 넣어주는 것이다.

It's important to know that before 1913, there was no income tax in the United States. Income tax was devised to secure money to pay interest after the Federal Reserve was established. The Federal Reserve is responsible for both the visible income tax and the invisible tax called inflation. Their essential mission is to take money from our pockets and put it into the pockets of the wealthy.

 

 

1929년의 시장 붕괴는 주식 투기 때문이었다. 2007년 시장 붕괴는 부동산 투기 때문이었다. 두 상황은 상당히 다르다. 1929년에는 금본위제도에 얽매여 있었기 때문에 미국 정부는 돈을 찍어낼 수 없었고, 따라서 디플레이션에서 쉽게 벗어날 수 없었따. 하지만 지금 그러한 상황이 닥치면 미국 정부는 당장 돈을 찍어내 순식간에 빚을 갚아 디플레이션을 해소할 수 있다. 지금 미국 달러는 미국 정부에 대한 선한 믿음과 신용 이외에는 그 무엇으로도 뒷받침되지 않는 허공에 떠다니는 화폐이기 때문이다. 이런 처방은 결국 어떤 상황으로 이어질까?

The 1929 market crash was due to stock speculation, while the 2007 crash was due to real estate speculation. The situations were quite different. In 1929, the United States was tied to the gold standard, so the government couldn't print money, making it hard to escape deflation. However, if a similar situation occurred today, the US government could instantly print money to pay off debts and resolve deflation, since the current US dollar is a fiat currency backed by nothing but the government's good faith and credit. What might this approach ultimately lead to?

 

 

<금 대신 달러>

 

1933년 프랭클린 루스벨트 대통령은 미국인들에게 금을 가지고 오면 1온스(약 8돈)당 20.22달러를 주겠다고 했다. 그렇게 금을 긁어모으고 나서 금값을 1온스당 35달러로 올렸다. 단숨에 58퍼센트나 금값을 끌어올림으로써 금 1온스당 15달러씩 국민의 돈을 강탈한 것이다. 더 나아가 금을 소지하고 있다가 잡히면 1만 달러의 벌금을 물리거나 10년동안 감옥살이를 시켰다.

Dollar Instead of Gold

In 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt offered Americans $20.22 per ounce of gold they turned in. After amassing the gold, he raised the price to $35 per ounce. This abrupt 58% increase effectively robbed citizens of $15 per ounce of gold. Moreover, those caught hoarding gold faced a $10,000 fine or ten years in prison.

 

 

이러한 조치를 취한 이유는 명백하다. 교환수단으로 돈 이외에는 다른 것을 사용하지 말라는 뜻이다. 또한 미국 정부가 너무 많은 달러를 찍어내는 바람에 그것을 뒷받침할 금을 충분히 확보하지 못한 상황을 무마하려는 술책이었다. 그렇게라도 해서 금을 확보하지 않으면 파산할 지경이었기 때문이다.

The reason for these measures was clear: to ensure money was the sole medium of exchange. It also served to cover up the government's inability to back the excess dollars it had printed with sufficient gold. Without securing gold in this manner, the government was on the brink of bankruptcy.

 

 

미국인들이 다시 금을 소유할 수 있게 된 것은 1975년이었다. 닉슨이 달러와 금의 교환관계를 영원히 끊어버린 다음에야 사람들은 금을 가질 수 있게 되었다. 하지만 정부와 은행이 마음대로 돈을 찍어낼 수 있는 상황에서 누가 금을 갖고 싶어했겠는가?

Americans were once again allowed to own gold in 1975, after Nixon permanently severed the dollar's ties with gold. However, in a situation where the government and banks could freely print money, who would want to own gold?

 

오늘날 사람들은 오로지 돈만 사용한다. 금이나 은을 어디에서 살 수 있는지 알지 못한다. 아니, 금이나 은을 왜 사야 하는지도 모른다. 그들 눈에는 오로지 사라지는 일자리, 떨어지는 집값, 폭락하는 주가, 날아가는 퇴직연금만이 보일 뿐이다. 수많은 사람들이 절망적으로 정부의 구제금융만 바라보고 있다. 사람들 눈에는 구제금융만이 금덩이로 보인다. 그 금덩이는 돈이 돌지 않는 디플레이션을 일시적으로 해결해줄 수 있지만, 결국 우리가 알지도 못하는 사이에 하이퍼인플레이션을 더욱 앞당길 것이다.

Today, people use only money. They don't know where to buy gold or silver, nor do they understand why they should. All they see are disappearing jobs, falling home prices, plummeting stock prices, and vanishing retirement funds. Many despairingly look to government bailouts as their only hope. To them, bailouts appear as golden opportunities. While these bailouts can temporarily solve the problem of money not circulating in a deflationary period, they will ultimately accelerate hyperinflation without us even realizing it.

 

 

앞으로 닥칠 공황을 준비하기 위한 첫 단계는 역사를 돌아보고, 현실을 점검하고, 미래를 내다보고, 스스로 결정을 하는 것이다. 그런 다음 가난한 아빠의 공황 생존전략을 선택할 것인지, 부자 아빠의 공황 생존전략을 선택할 것인지 결정해야 한다. 공황은 모든 사람들에게 똑같이 영향을 미친다. 하지만 그 영향력이 커질수록, 부자는 더 부자가 되고 가난한 사람은 더 가난해진다.

The first step in preparing for an upcoming crisis is to look back at history, assess the present, foresee the future, and make your own decisions. Then, you must choose whether to adopt the poor dad’s crisis survival strategy or the rich dad’s crisis survival strategy. A crisis affects everyone equally, but as the impact grows, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

 

 

공황은 오지 않을 수도 있다. 전 세계가 미국 달러를 중심으로 하는 경제체제에서 이탈하지 않는다면, 또 전 세계가 허공에서 찍어내는 돈을 토대로 계속 돌아간다면 말이다.

A crisis may not come. This is true as long as the world doesn't deviate from the US dollar-centric economic system and continues to operate on money created out of thin air.

 

 

세계의 수많은 나라들이 미국에 상품이나 서비스를 수출하고 그 대가로 달러를 받는다. 미국은 계속 돈만 찍어서 그들에게 내주면 된다. 미국의 최고 수출품은 뭐니뭐니해도 달러, 즉 빚에 대한 차용증이다. 다른 나라들이 미국의 달러(차용증), 재무부증권( T-bill), 채권을 받아들이는 한 회전목마는 계속 돌아갈 것이다. 하지만 그들이 미국 달러받기를 거부하는 순간, 흥겨운 노랫소리는 멈출 것이고 곧바로 공황이 밀어닥칠 것이다. 20세기 초 대공황보다 더 끔찍한 사태가 벌어질 것이다.

Numerous countries around the world export goods and services to the US and receive dollars in return. The US can keep printing money to pay them. The greatest export of the US is, undoubtedly, the dollar, which is essentially an IOU for debt. As long as other countries accept US dollars (IOUs), Treasury bills, and bonds, the merry-go-round will keep spinning. But the moment they refuse to accept US dollars, the joyous music will stop, and a crisis will ensue, one that will be more horrific than the Great Depression of the early 20th century.

 

 

경제 성장의 혜택만을 누려왔던 사람은 디플레이션이나 하이퍼인플레이션이 어떤 것인지, 또 무엇을 준비해야 하는지 알 수 없다. 그런 상황에 대비하기 위해서 가장 좋은 방법은 지난 공황을 경험해본 사람에게 직접 이야기를 듣는 것이다. 미국의 공황, 독일의 공황에서 살아남은 사람들을 만나 밥 한끼 대접하며 그때 삶이 어떠했는지 물어보라. 다가오는 공황을 대비하는 데 소중한 정보가 될 것이다.

 

지금 당신은 무엇을 준비하는가?

People who have only enjoyed the benefits of economic growth cannot understand what deflation or hyperinflation is, nor what to prepare for. The best way to prepare for such situations is to listen to those who have experienced past crises. Find people who survived the American or German crises, buy them a meal, and ask them what life was like then. Their stories will provide invaluable insights for preparing for the upcoming crisis.

What are you preparing for now?